Parts Demand Forecasting for Dealers
Suggests a reorder point and quantity for each part from what the branch actually issued, with the arithmetic shown.
Included with your module subscription at no extra charge. An administrator switches each pack on for your business in Admin > Features.
What demand forecasting is
Most reorder points in a parts department were set once, by someone who has since moved on. Demand forecasting replaces the guess with a suggestion built from what a branch really used. It works from weekly issues for the selected branch, counting job issues, counter sales and sales-order picks, and taking off returns, reversals and unpicks. Voided and cancelled documents are ignored.
From that history, the part's lead time (observed, or set by you) and the service level you choose, the Demand tab in the Parts hub suggests a reorder point and a reorder quantity per part. Every suggestion has a Why panel showing the weekly usage and the arithmetic, so the parts manager can argue with it.
It is deliberately cautious. A part needs at least eight weeks of history, usage in at least four of those weeks and at least six issues, and no single week can account for more than half of all usage. Parts that fail those tests are not forecast; the screen tells you which test they failed. Nothing changes until a person selects Apply, which sets the branch's reorder point and quantity, or Create draft purchase orders, which writes drafts per supplier that stay drafts until you send them.
Part of these modules
What demand forecasting covers
- Reads weekly issues from jobs, counter sales and sales-order picks, less returns, reversals and unpicks
- Suggests a reorder point and reorder quantity per part for the selected branch
- Uses the part's observed or set lead time and a service level of 90, 95, 98 or 99 percent
- Shows a Why panel with the weekly usage and the working
- Applies a suggestion to the branch, or creates draft purchase orders per supplier, only when a person asks
Where demand forecasting stops
Stated as it behaves today, so you can judge the fit before you switch it on.
- Does not order anything automatically; draft purchase orders are never sent
- Does not forecast trends or predict a stock-out
- Does not change minimum or maximum levels
- Declines to suggest where history is too thin and says why
Demand forecasting in a working day
The parts manager opens the Demand tab on a Monday and filters to filters and belts. Most suggestions match what is already set. Two do not: a hydraulic filter used steadily every week is under-stocked, and a belt that sold in one big burst last winter is declined because one week made up most of its usage. She applies the first, leaves the second to her own judgement, and creates draft orders for the supplier to check before sending.
Switching on demand forecasting
Included with your module subscription at no extra charge. An administrator switches each pack on for your business in Admin > Features.
Ask MDMS AI about demand forecasting
Try asking Read
“What should the Northside branch reorder?”
Admin, dealer principal, branch manager, parts manager, parts interpreter and warehouse. Reads only. MDMS AI is an optional add-on with its own price and an AI seat, and what it can answer depends on your modules and role.
About MDMS AIMore feature packs
Seasonal reorder adjustment
Enter twelve monthly factors per branch and demand suggestions adjust for busy and quiet months, within limits you control.
Back-order allocation
Holds stock that arrives for the oldest waiting work orders and sales orders at the same branch, with every hold on a ledger.
Parts costing method
Choose between today's mixed costs and moving average cost for issues, job and quote costs, margins and stock valuation.
Frequently asked questions
- Will it place orders for me?
- No. Apply writes a reorder point and quantity to the branch. Create draft purchase orders writes drafts per supplier. A person sends them.
- Why did a part get no suggestion?
- It did not pass the history tests: eight weeks of history, usage in four weeks, six issues, and no single week over half of total usage. The screen shows which one.
- Does it allow for busy seasons?
- Not by itself. The seasonal reorder adjustment pack layers a monthly profile you enter on top of these suggestions.
Where this work shows up
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